HBP predictions assessment - and a New Theory

[snorkackcatcher]

When considering how right or (mostly) wrong I'd been on the predictions, I came up with a Brand New Theory (didn't we all?). Details of that at the end, but for now, here's my take on how well I did. Actually, I didn't do quite as badly as I first thought - I got a lot of minor things right, but struck out on most of the really speculative predictions.



1. Shipping:

Bill/Fleur: Right
Ron/Hermione: Right (eventually)
Harry fending off interest from a number of witches who are suddenly interested in him, but developing something with Luna: First part right, second - well, kinda sorta right (at least he took her to a party and enjoyed her company)
He actually ends up with Ginny eventually, their friendship will develop too (although she will be dating Dean): Right - I just wasn't expecting it this book
Remus/Sirius ... will not have happened: Right (probably - Wolfstar fans can point out that it still could have happened)
Remus/Tonks ... isn't going to happen either: Wrong, and glad to be so!

2. The HBP will be Godric Gryffindor: Totally wrong!

3. Who gets the chop:

Dumbledore: Right
Charlie: Wrong (barely even mentioned - maybe book 7)
At least one named minor Order member: Right
At least one known DE: Well, one named DE, anyway
At least one relative of somebody Harry knows (other than Ron or Hermione): Right
A few random wizards or Muggles in DE attacks reported in the Daily Prophet: More than a few, actually
The Dursleys survive: Right

Dumbledore ... stepping in the way of an AK from Voldemort meant for Harry: Wrong!

4. The new Minister ... Amelia Bones: Proven wrong in the first few pages ...
Second option someone totally unknown to us: Er - almost totally unknown?

5. The "Lion Man" from the preview will be the new DADA teacher. Bonus guess: he'll be called Felix: Very wrong

6. McClaggan will just be some minor character: Half right - he's not a major character, but he's not a name-only mention either

7. Andromeda Tonks will inherit 12GP as the oldest surviving Black relative. Second possibility Draco if it has to go via the male line: Nice try, but completely wrong - should never assume that JKR has done the math!

8. "Draco's Detour" ... will be a diversion when they're all meeting at Diagon Alley where they will follow him and overhear something that sounds like an Evil Plot: Right! My one real speculative shot that definitely came off

9. Spinner's End ... where Ted and Andromeda live: Not even remotely close

10. Character Developments:

Lupin is a Legilimens: Could be - nothing either way to show
Narcissa is broadly sympathetic to the DE activities of her husband and sister but not a full DE herself, and will prove willing to distance herself somewhat if she has to: Wrong, I think - she's not as fanatical as Bella, true, but she seems to be part of the circle
We may be in for some kind of big surprise about some aspect of Narcissa, though: Right, sort of, I suppose
Snape's loyalties will continue to be ambiguous: Hmmm ... I'd say there was some evidence in this book that he might really be working for the Dark Side. :) I still think there's a good chance that he is still working for the good guys and Dumbledore was pleading (via Legilimency) for him to cast the Killing Curse rather than Draco, and that he was trying to cue Harry in on what he needed to do during their fight, but ... well, that's definitely ambiguous
I still think he had a thing about Lily, but I suspect that's more likely a book 7 revelation if so: Still possible (as hannahmarder pointed out, he could have become friends with Lily at the Slug Club)
What happened to Luna's mother will turn out to be of significance: Not so far
Ron, Hermione and possibly some of the other kids finally encounter Voldy at the end of the book, but Harry is the one who gets the brunt of it: Way off
The fact that Ron and Hermione come of age in wizarding terms during the year will turn out not to be of huge plot importance: Right, i'd say (Apparition lessons, but they're not really important)

11. The prophecy ... Harry eventually tells Ron and Hermione about two-thirds into the book: Nope, quite early on
Voldy finds out by the end: As far as we know, no (although given what the Prophet were printing, he may have a good idea)
Regulus Black being the one who overheard it, reporting to Dumbledore, and attempting to change sides and spy but getting killed for it: Wrong, although Regulus changing sides now seems like an excellent bet (JKR has said that people will work something out, and I'm presuming it's the identity of RAB - also see below on that)

12. That first chapter: the events surrounding Halloween 1981: Wildly wrong

13. Kreacher will turn out to be the one who told Voldemort about Harry's snake vision: Might have been - nothing to confirm or contradict that
I doubt that he'll be important in HBP: Half-right - he wasn't especially important, but he did have something to do

14. More likely Book 7 for this one, but .., Dudley's worst memory will turn out to be of arriving at Smeltings as a fat, full-of-himself 11-year-old, and having the older boys tease, torment, and generally beat the crap out of him for it: We'll see when Book 7 arrives, no doubt

15. Auror Scrimgeour ... will probably not be anything like my version, as on re-reading his solitary mention in OotP it sounds more like he's the boss (so closer to my Claymore). Damn. I should have read the passage more carefully before using the name: He indeed wasn't *gnashes teeth* That was a real missed birdie opportunity (yes, I was just watching the final round of the Open)
Dawlish ... will probably not be as senior as I made him: Nothing much to say either way ... I think I can get away with this one
Williamson might be roughly right, though: No idea, he wasn't mentioned that I noticed

16. A couple of offbeat ones:

Benjy the water-skiing budgie will turn out to be an Animagus/transfigured human: Hey, JKR didn't say he wasn't. :)

The amulet they found when cleaning 12GP and couldn't open will prove to be of value: Well ... finally, here comes that theory I mentioned:

This was a last-minute speculation based on a line I noticed on a late reread of OotP, where it's described as "a heavy locket that none of them could open" among a bunch of things described in more detail they found when cleaning out 12GP. Given JKR's usual style, makes you wonder what might be inside it, doesn't it? Now then, the Slytherin locket used for the Horcrux is described in HBP as "a heavy golden locket". We suspect Regulus substituted the one Harry has for the real one. Would not the Unplottable old family home be a good place to hide it while preparing to destroy it? Since it has the snake crest, it would have looked pretty much like a standard Black family heirloom. Kreacher might quite possibly have sneaked it out of the rubbish sack (if it was ever put in there). Harry, now he owns 12GP, will quite likely be making use of the place as a base of operations. Wouldn't it be ironic if it turns out the last one he can't find was under his nose all the time?

Comments

[a-t-rain.livejournal.com]

Well, you did way, way better than I did on the predictions, and I think the locket one just might be the long-shot score of the year. Very well guessed!

[snorkackcatcher]

If I did better, it was probably only because I was very conservative about taking guesses ... And your analysis of the 12GP situation was pretty much spot on (I nicked - er sorry, borrowed - most of mine from AILLP).

[jesspallas.livejournal.com]

I think the locket is bang on the money but I don't think it's still at 12GP. I reckon that it's been stolen by Mundungus and Harry will have to go to Azkaban to ask him where it is. Otherwise what was the point of the whole Mundugus plot?

:)

[snorkackcatcher]

Now that's an thought - I must admit I'd forgotten the Mundungus stuff with everything else that was going on. Given that we saw again in HBP how even apparently inconseqential comedy touches can turn out to be hugely significant, I like that idea!

[hannahmarder.livejournal.com]

Brilliant theory, snorkackcatcher! That would be so like JKR. You've convinced me already!

[snorkackcatcher]

Thanks. :) Actually, rereading that bit of HBP about young Tom Riddle "liking to collect trophies" just now made me wonder a bit about whether that Special Award of his might be a Horcrux, or at least whether he might have wanted it for one ... You'd kind of wonder if there might have been something important about the DADA office if he wanted the job so much ("Professor Voldemort"? Er, right), although since Quirrell, Crouch Jnr and Snape have all been residents I suppose there can't be anything hidden there that they couldn't have found. Oh well. Doubtless everybody will guess every object in the books as possibles, although I think we can pretty much guarantee that at least one of them won't be an object we've heard of before book 7. :)