HBP Predictions!
Jul. 14th, 2005 11:07 am![[personal profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/user.png){kind=small}
snorkackcatcherShould have got around to this earlier but ... this therefore is my attempt at the Half-Blood Prince Predictions That Will Be Proved Wrong Most Quickly. Perhaps I should have got HBP and then written this post using a Time-Turner (i.e. LJ's backdated posting system)!
I finally decided to actually go down to WH Smith's and pick up my copy in person at midnight rather than dispatching my mother to collect it. The risk of doing this is of course that some little oik will look at the back of the book and shout out the name of the HBP/character who gets killed/other plot point of imporance. Said oik would obviously be immediately lynched, but it would be too late then, wouldn't it? However, I figured this is my last chance to attend any kind of Midnight Opening (since I'm definitely not going to risk it for Book 7) so I'll take my chances.
Since I lack any robes I don't suppose I'll be dressing up - I refuse to dye my hair red merely to portray a Weasley. About the only possibility would be to go as Remus in a shabby jumper and trousers and an old raincoat, but this is an occasion where you really don't want to look like a child molester.
Saturday is going to be mostly spent in my flat trying not to see or hear any news until I've finished the book. I'll try to read more slowly this time, but ...
Anyway, the predictions - many are pure shots in the dark, and I'll be pleased to get any right, but here goes.
1. Let's start with the shipping forecast (because after all, that's the most important part of the books, right?). My guesses are that Ron/Hermione and Bill/Fleur are pretty much nailed on (the latter's engagement/wedding could indeed be the reason Harry gets to leave early for a more pleasant occasion). As for Harry himself, my money's on him fending off interest from a number of witches who are suddenly interested in him, but developing something with Luna. Side bet: same thing, but with Susan Bones. Since I wouldn't be surprised if he actually ends up with Ginny eventually, their friendship will develop too (although she will be dating Dean).
Adults: Remus/Sirius ... will not be going to have happened. [Er, can any linguists tell me what the hell that tense was?] Sorry, Wolfstarites. Remus/Tonks, on the other hand ... isn't going to happen either. I have a real soft spot for this one, but there's not even a hint in OotP. I suspect it's one of those pure fanon pairings (like Neville/Luna) that probably hasn't even crossed JKR's mind.
2. The HBP will be Godric Gryffindor. Actually, you could lay odds; let's say evens Godric, 2-1 previously unknown character, 10-1 Salazar Slytherin, 20-1 Dean, 33-1 Dumbledore, 100-1 anyone else.
I mention Dean as the fact that JKR posted a lot of backstory about his half-bloodedness on her website cuts both ways - it's probably evidence against, but she did make the effort to work in Thestrals in Fantastic Beasts, so might conceivably regard this as fair play. I do rather doubt it would be a current character, though - they'd take on too much importance to the final book, unless they were going to be killed off.
3. Which brings us on to the question of who gets the chop. I'll say Dumbledore (I hope not, but he's been on too many book covers in a mentor-type role for my liking), Charlie (because he's been so minor so far, he could well be the Expendable Weasley), Fudge (we know he's going, why not assassination?). In addition, at least one named minor Order member, at least one known DE, at least one relative of somebody Harry knows (other than Ron or Hermione) and probably a few random wizards or Muggles in DE attacks reported in the Daily Prophet. The Dursleys survive (because JKR has said they're in book 7, and I doubt Harry would spend much time Pensieving his memories of them).
Actually, a theory based on JKR's answer to the Neville question: we know Dumbledore cares about Harry, so another sacrifice a la Lily seems possible, with him stepping in the way of an AK from Voldemort meant for Harry. Since all concerned would know that this would mean Voldy couldn't use Ak on him again without it rebounding, that would give Harry some measure of protection for book 7 ...
4. Given that Fudge is going, the new Minister ... Amelia Bones. Can't see another good possibility from among the known characters, she came into the books at the right time and in the right way to become more prominent, and in wartime you wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Head of Law Enforcement taking charge. Second option someone totally unknown to us. If it is Amelia, then Kingsley and Arthur would be interesting long shots as the new Head of her Department ...
5. The "Lion Man" from the preview will be the new DADA teacher. Bonus guess: he'll be called Felix.
6. McClaggan will just be some minor character (random Ministry official, student being Sorted, etc).
7. Andromeda Tonks will inherit 12GP as the oldest surviving Black relative. Second possibility Draco if it has to go via the male line. (I reason that it probably has to go to a Black, as Mrs Black couldn't disinherit Sirius. Then again, she apparently owned it after the death of her husband, so maybe it isn't otherwise entailed. I also think Mrs Black probably was a Black relative before her marriage - that bit in Toujours Pur wasn't just for the sake of the story. Kudos to After the Rain if it does turn out to be Draco detouring there, though!)
8. Ah yes, "Draco's Detour". My shot in the dark is that it will be a diversion when they're all meeting at Diagon Alley where they will follow him and overhear something that sounds like an Evil Plot.
9. And the other chapter title I haven't guessed at - I'll say Spinner's End (ch2?) might be where Ted and Andromeda live, and Harry gets to meet them re the inheritance of 12GP.
10. Character Developments. I'll say that Lupin is a Legilimens (not an original theory, but one that makes a lot of sense given the nature of some of the passages), Narcissa is broadly sympathetic to the DE activities of her husband and sister but not a full DE herself, and will prove willing to distance herself somewhat if she has to. (I do suspect we may be in for some kind of big surprise about some aspect of Narcissa, though.) Snape's loyalties will continue to be ambiguous. (I still think he had a thing about Lily, but I suspect that's more likely a book 7 revelation if so.) What happened to Luna's mother will turn out to be of significance. And I'll guess that Ron, Hermione and possibly some of the other kids finally encounter Voldy at the end of the book, but Harry is the one who gets the brunt of it. The fact that Ron and Hermione come of age in wizarding terms during the year will turn out not to be of huge plot importance.
11. The propehecy: I can't see why Dumbledore wouldn't have put it under Fidelius, actually, but let's say Harry eventually tells Ron and Hermione about two-thirds into the book, and Voldy finds out by the end. I'll also place my bet on Regulus Black being the one who overheard it, reporting to Dumbledore, and attempting to change sides and spy but getting killed for it.
12. That first chapter: the events surrounding Halloween 1981? Not sure what else would fit as a first chapter of the other three books mentioned.
13. Blimey, have I really got as far as thirteen? Pressing on: Kreacher will turn out to be the one who told Voldemort about Harry's snake vision (he stops to listen to Harry telling the story just before leaving, and Snape didn't seem too sure how Voldy knew when telling Harry about it before trying to teach him Occlumency). Naturally, this will cause Harry to be even fonder of him. I doubt that he'll be important in HBP.
14. More likely Book 7 for this one, but .., Dudley's worst memory will turn out to be of arriving at Smeltings as a fat, full-of-himself 11-year-old, and having the older boys tease, torment, and generally beat the crap out of him for it.
15. Auror Scrimgeour ... will probably not be anything like my version, as on re-reading his solitary mention in OotP it sounds more like he's the boos (so closer to my Claymore). Damn. I should have read the passage more carefully before using the name. Same goes for Dawlish, who will probably not be as senior as I made him. Double damn. Williamson might be roughly right, though.
16. And a couple of offbeat ones to end. The amulet they found when cleaning 12GP and couldn't open will prove to be of value. And Benjy the water-skiing budgie will turn out to be an Animagus/transfigured human. Well, in my version anyway. :)
Phew!
I finally decided to actually go down to WH Smith's and pick up my copy in person at midnight rather than dispatching my mother to collect it. The risk of doing this is of course that some little oik will look at the back of the book and shout out the name of the HBP/character who gets killed/other plot point of imporance. Said oik would obviously be immediately lynched, but it would be too late then, wouldn't it? However, I figured this is my last chance to attend any kind of Midnight Opening (since I'm definitely not going to risk it for Book 7) so I'll take my chances.
Since I lack any robes I don't suppose I'll be dressing up - I refuse to dye my hair red merely to portray a Weasley. About the only possibility would be to go as Remus in a shabby jumper and trousers and an old raincoat, but this is an occasion where you really don't want to look like a child molester.
Saturday is going to be mostly spent in my flat trying not to see or hear any news until I've finished the book. I'll try to read more slowly this time, but ...
Anyway, the predictions - many are pure shots in the dark, and I'll be pleased to get any right, but here goes.
1. Let's start with the shipping forecast (because after all, that's the most important part of the books, right?). My guesses are that Ron/Hermione and Bill/Fleur are pretty much nailed on (the latter's engagement/wedding could indeed be the reason Harry gets to leave early for a more pleasant occasion). As for Harry himself, my money's on him fending off interest from a number of witches who are suddenly interested in him, but developing something with Luna. Side bet: same thing, but with Susan Bones. Since I wouldn't be surprised if he actually ends up with Ginny eventually, their friendship will develop too (although she will be dating Dean).
Adults: Remus/Sirius ... will not be going to have happened. [Er, can any linguists tell me what the hell that tense was?] Sorry, Wolfstarites. Remus/Tonks, on the other hand ... isn't going to happen either. I have a real soft spot for this one, but there's not even a hint in OotP. I suspect it's one of those pure fanon pairings (like Neville/Luna) that probably hasn't even crossed JKR's mind.
2. The HBP will be Godric Gryffindor. Actually, you could lay odds; let's say evens Godric, 2-1 previously unknown character, 10-1 Salazar Slytherin, 20-1 Dean, 33-1 Dumbledore, 100-1 anyone else.
I mention Dean as the fact that JKR posted a lot of backstory about his half-bloodedness on her website cuts both ways - it's probably evidence against, but she did make the effort to work in Thestrals in Fantastic Beasts, so might conceivably regard this as fair play. I do rather doubt it would be a current character, though - they'd take on too much importance to the final book, unless they were going to be killed off.
3. Which brings us on to the question of who gets the chop. I'll say Dumbledore (I hope not, but he's been on too many book covers in a mentor-type role for my liking), Charlie (because he's been so minor so far, he could well be the Expendable Weasley), Fudge (we know he's going, why not assassination?). In addition, at least one named minor Order member, at least one known DE, at least one relative of somebody Harry knows (other than Ron or Hermione) and probably a few random wizards or Muggles in DE attacks reported in the Daily Prophet. The Dursleys survive (because JKR has said they're in book 7, and I doubt Harry would spend much time Pensieving his memories of them).
Actually, a theory based on JKR's answer to the Neville question: we know Dumbledore cares about Harry, so another sacrifice a la Lily seems possible, with him stepping in the way of an AK from Voldemort meant for Harry. Since all concerned would know that this would mean Voldy couldn't use Ak on him again without it rebounding, that would give Harry some measure of protection for book 7 ...
4. Given that Fudge is going, the new Minister ... Amelia Bones. Can't see another good possibility from among the known characters, she came into the books at the right time and in the right way to become more prominent, and in wartime you wouldn't be at all surprised to see the Head of Law Enforcement taking charge. Second option someone totally unknown to us. If it is Amelia, then Kingsley and Arthur would be interesting long shots as the new Head of her Department ...
5. The "Lion Man" from the preview will be the new DADA teacher. Bonus guess: he'll be called Felix.
6. McClaggan will just be some minor character (random Ministry official, student being Sorted, etc).
7. Andromeda Tonks will inherit 12GP as the oldest surviving Black relative. Second possibility Draco if it has to go via the male line. (I reason that it probably has to go to a Black, as Mrs Black couldn't disinherit Sirius. Then again, she apparently owned it after the death of her husband, so maybe it isn't otherwise entailed. I also think Mrs Black probably was a Black relative before her marriage - that bit in Toujours Pur wasn't just for the sake of the story. Kudos to After the Rain if it does turn out to be Draco detouring there, though!)
8. Ah yes, "Draco's Detour". My shot in the dark is that it will be a diversion when they're all meeting at Diagon Alley where they will follow him and overhear something that sounds like an Evil Plot.
9. And the other chapter title I haven't guessed at - I'll say Spinner's End (ch2?) might be where Ted and Andromeda live, and Harry gets to meet them re the inheritance of 12GP.
10. Character Developments. I'll say that Lupin is a Legilimens (not an original theory, but one that makes a lot of sense given the nature of some of the passages), Narcissa is broadly sympathetic to the DE activities of her husband and sister but not a full DE herself, and will prove willing to distance herself somewhat if she has to. (I do suspect we may be in for some kind of big surprise about some aspect of Narcissa, though.) Snape's loyalties will continue to be ambiguous. (I still think he had a thing about Lily, but I suspect that's more likely a book 7 revelation if so.) What happened to Luna's mother will turn out to be of significance. And I'll guess that Ron, Hermione and possibly some of the other kids finally encounter Voldy at the end of the book, but Harry is the one who gets the brunt of it. The fact that Ron and Hermione come of age in wizarding terms during the year will turn out not to be of huge plot importance.
11. The propehecy: I can't see why Dumbledore wouldn't have put it under Fidelius, actually, but let's say Harry eventually tells Ron and Hermione about two-thirds into the book, and Voldy finds out by the end. I'll also place my bet on Regulus Black being the one who overheard it, reporting to Dumbledore, and attempting to change sides and spy but getting killed for it.
12. That first chapter: the events surrounding Halloween 1981? Not sure what else would fit as a first chapter of the other three books mentioned.
13. Blimey, have I really got as far as thirteen? Pressing on: Kreacher will turn out to be the one who told Voldemort about Harry's snake vision (he stops to listen to Harry telling the story just before leaving, and Snape didn't seem too sure how Voldy knew when telling Harry about it before trying to teach him Occlumency). Naturally, this will cause Harry to be even fonder of him. I doubt that he'll be important in HBP.
14. More likely Book 7 for this one, but .., Dudley's worst memory will turn out to be of arriving at Smeltings as a fat, full-of-himself 11-year-old, and having the older boys tease, torment, and generally beat the crap out of him for it.
15. Auror Scrimgeour ... will probably not be anything like my version, as on re-reading his solitary mention in OotP it sounds more like he's the boos (so closer to my Claymore). Damn. I should have read the passage more carefully before using the name. Same goes for Dawlish, who will probably not be as senior as I made him. Double damn. Williamson might be roughly right, though.
16. And a couple of offbeat ones to end. The amulet they found when cleaning 12GP and couldn't open will prove to be of value. And Benjy the water-skiing budgie will turn out to be an Animagus/transfigured human. Well, in my version anyway. :)
Phew!
![[identity profile]](https://www.dreamwidth.org/img/silk/identity/openid.png){kind=small}
no subject
Date: 2005-07-14 01:26 pm (UTC)As for the tense...'will not be going to have happened' would be...I have no idea. It's something resembling past perfect, except with a random clause dropped into the centre. ;)
#3 sounds entirely plausible. I could definitely see Dumbledore taking an AK for Harry, which would instil him with yet another layer of protection against Voldemort. That Voldemort, he never learns, does he?
I wouldn't be surprised at all if Lupin turned out to be a Legilimens. And I would love to see some random twist involving Narcissa (which really shouldn't surprise anyone). As for Ted and Andromeda, that makes a lot of sense. She *is* the eldest member of the House of Black, after all. Now, if Bellatrix somehow ended up inheriting (seeing as Sirius managed to do so despite being in Azkaban), that could cause many problems. Although I'm not sure if she would be able to come out of hiding long enough to take possession of the place.
no subject
Date: 2005-07-14 01:54 pm (UTC)Would that mean Harry would have to stay with Aberforth for the summer? :: wonders about details of the blood-protection thing ::
Re Draco's Detour -- I have a feeling it might involve being shanghaied into the Weasley twins' joke shop for some forced guinea-piggery. And I have to admit I'll be laughing out loud if that happens.
Snape and Lily -- Just curious, why do you think so?
14. More likely Book 7 for this one, but .., Dudley's worst memory will turn out to be of arriving at Smeltings as a fat, full-of-himself 11-year-old, and having the older boys tease, torment, and generally beat the crap out of him for it.
Interesting! I wouldn't have thought about that one -- I guess I've always assumed that his worst memory would have something to do with either Harry's magic, or Uncle Vernon. (Vernon hits Dudley around the head during the flight to the Hut-on-the-Rock, and it's described so casually from Harry's PoV that I wonder if this wasn't the first time. Truth be told, I can imagine that it would be harder to live with a parent who is by turns indulgent and dangerously explosive, than to deal with unremitting hatred like Harry does.)
no subject
Date: 2005-07-14 02:15 pm (UTC)Technically, Bellatrix could be the oldest - I always assumed that she was until a thread on FA made me do the math. The way it works, Andromeda can only be younger than Bella if she had her daughter at a young age (no more than 18) and Nymphadora joined Auror training straight from Hogwarts and Snape was a lot younger than Bella and the rest when he was part of that gang of Slytherins. This of course assumes that JKR has done the math too - always a somewhat risky assumption. It was annoying, because I wanted to make a point about inheritance in the Tonks story which involved Bella being next in line for 12GP, but in the light of the calculations couldn't make it fit. :)
no subject
Date: 2005-07-14 02:44 pm (UTC)That's an idea (*imagines Harry developing strong aversion to goats*)
I'm kind of assuming that the 4PD protection is a separate spell which would still hold while Harry was there, but that wouldn't stop Voldy AK-ing him elsewhere because the rebound protection from Lily was a one-time thing (not that I suppose anybody ever tested it). In that case, a new sacrifice would be required to protect against another AK?
Snape and Lily -- Just curious, why do you think so?
One of those random theories formed on no evidence whatsoever in Book 1 as a speculation to explain Snape's hatred of James, and which still actuially seems reasonable. There are actually arguments for it - i.e. Snape never misses a chance to say venomous things about James to Harry, but has never so much as mentioned Lily, despite many opportunities (e.g. he talks about James' arrogance at trusting Sirius and getting himself killed, but not Lily's). There's probably something about that Pensieve scene other than the public embarrassment which makes it "Snape's Worst Memory" - lashing out at Lily because of his humiliation and driving her away, possibly towards James, might be one of them. And JKR said something about accidental foreshadowing in the PoA movie - that rather saccharine dialogue they wrote for Remus might be actually similar to how she behaved to Snape. None of this is proof, of course, even by Super Secret Shipper Standards - but it's more than most shipping claims have! And I feel sure anything there would have been one-sided - i.e. Snape "liked" Lily, but Lily was just kind to him when a lot of people weren't.
Vernon hits Dudley around the head during the flight to the Hut-on-the-Rock, and it's described so casually from Harry's PoV that I wonder if this wasn't the first time.
I went back to have a look at PS, and I do get the impression that it hadn't been a regular thing ... I'm not sure Dudley would have thrown so many tantrums about birthday presents and the like if Vernon had regularly clobbered him. I always got the impression that that incident was a real one-off, caused by Vernon's panic-stricken reaction to the letters - hence Dudley's sniffling when it happened. But you can imagine Dudley's bullying tendencies being reinforced if he suddenly became the target?
no subject
Date: 2005-07-14 02:44 pm (UTC)no subject
Date: 2005-07-14 04:54 pm (UTC)I think it was Random Tense. I use it often. ;)
The HBP will be Godric Gryffindor. Actually, you could lay odds; let's say evens Godric, 2-1 previously unknown character, 10-1 Salazar Slytherin, 20-1 Dean, 33-1 Dumbledore, 100-1 anyone else.
I think that's a fair bet. :)
Which brings us on to the question of who gets the chop. I'll say Dumbledore (I hope not, but he's been on too many book covers in a mentor-type role for my liking)
Quite. :(
Charlie (because he's been so minor so far, he could well be the Expendable Weasley)
You know, I'm not convinced that JKR will kill a Weasley. I think she's too fond of all of them.
Actually, a theory based on JKR's answer to the Neville question: we know Dumbledore cares about Harry, so another sacrifice a la Lily seems possible, with him stepping in the way of an AK from Voldemort meant for Harry. Since all concerned would know that this would mean Voldy couldn't use Ak on him again without it rebounding, that would give Harry some measure of protection for book 7 ...
Hmmm... Interesting. And very possible. :)
Given that Fudge is going, the new Minister ... Amelia Bones.
Agreed. :)
The "Lion Man" from the preview will be the new DADA teacher. Bonus guess: he'll be called Felix.
That has crossed my mind too although I still think that Felix thingummy could be a spell. For DADA my heart says Lupin but my head says newcomer...;)
I'll say that Lupin is a Legilimens (not an original theory, but one that makes a lot of sense given the nature of some of the passages)
Though I think that's an excellant theory, I'm not sure how relevant it'll be because I suspect any Occulumency lessons will take place with Dumebledore.
Narcissa is broadly sympathetic to the DE activities of her husband and sister but not a full DE herself, and will prove willing to distance herself somewhat if she has to.
Agreed.
I'll also place my bet on Regulus Black being the one who overheard it, reporting to Dumbledore, and attempting to change sides and spy but getting killed for it.
Interesting theory and plausible. :)
That first chapter: the events surrounding Halloween 1981? Not sure what else would fit as a first chapter of the other three books mentioned.
I think that's quite probable.
More likely Book 7 for this one, but .., Dudley's worst memory will turn out to be of arriving at Smeltings as a fat, full-of-himself 11-year-old, and having the older boys tease, torment, and generally beat the crap out of him for it.
Another interesting idea. :)
Nice predictions. :)
no subject
Date: 2005-07-15 09:40 am (UTC)2. -- You might be right. I personally think it might be some historical descendant of Gryffindor. Maybe he had a child with a princess. But what I do predict is that the quest for "who the HBP is" will play no role whatsoever in the plot. Hey, I may be 100% wrong about that.
Incidentally, what will the storyline be about? Will there be a self-contained puzzle to solve as in books 1 through 4, or have we definitely embarked on a volume-spanning war tale from book 5 onwards?
5. I think the Lion Man passage (the style of the description) speaks against his being the DADA teacher. Stylistically, it sounds the way JKR writes about a character that has been anticipated for a long time, or one who is particularly gruesome to behold (Moody, Umbridge) -- which isn't the case. If he is the heir of Gryffindor, he can't be a simulacrum from the Founders' era. At least I hope JKR wouldn't commit the major blunder to give some like that wire-rimmed spectacles. I think it's a hermit who lives in the cottage on the just-released US cover.
8. He'll go to Borgin & Burkes (who he's known to deal in Dark stuff since at least the age of 12) to get... the Hand of Glory. What advantage he'd have from an artefact that doesn't do much more than to function like a lit torch, I have no idea.
12. Yes. That or the Founders' big falling-out -- less likely, though.
9., 11., 12. and 16.: excellent ideas.
May I very shamelessly plug my own predictions of elements of magic that might play a major role in the books to come. It's on my still-nearly-empty LJ, just posted.